Imagine a best-case scenario in which the Coronavirus is under control and the country is up and running by May 1. How have our social norms changed? What do these cultural shifts mean for organized real estate? And how is the industry different in a post-COVID-19 world?
On this episode of Industry Relations, Rob and Greg get relentlessly positive, discussing the post-Coronavirus landscape of the real estate industry should the best happen. They weigh in on the cultural shifts that are likely to occur in the aftermath of COVID-19, predicting which rituals will persist once the current restrictions have been lifted.
Greg and Rob go on to debate what open houses will look like in a post-pandemic world, why showings may (or may not) be restricted to serious buyers, and when we might be back to pre-COVID transaction levels. Listen in for our hosts’ best-case expectations regarding buyer demand as well as NAR membership and brokerage numbers come September—pending a V-shaped recovery.
Rob & Greg’s parameters for this potential best-case scenario
How the culture is likely to shift in the aftermath of COVID-19
What open houses will look like in a post-Coronavirus world
Why Rob believes showings will be restricted to serious buyers
When we might be back to pre-pandemic transaction levels
Why Greg expects a best-case scenario uptick in buyer demand
Rob’s prediction of a 20% drop in first-time homebuyers
Why Rob & Greg anticipate a 20% decline in NAR membership
How Rob & Greg differ around which agents will leave
The potential for 25% of small brokerages to join a larger team
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On the surface, the government’s effort to support homeowners through forbearance is a good thing. Many Americans have lost their jobs because of the Coronavirus pandemic and simply don’t have the resources to make a mortgage payment right now. But what does this mean for the servicing industry? Why are lenders concerned about the unintended consequences of Washington’s response?
On this episode of Industry Relations, mortgage banking expert Rob Chrisman joins Rob and Greg to discuss what’s happening in the capital markets as a result of the Coronavirus shutdown. He walks us through how a mortgage functions as a product, explaining the relationship between the servicer and the end investor in a mortgage-backed security or MBS.
Rob C. addresses how government forbearance for borrowers will impact big banks as well as smaller, independent lenders and weighs in on Ginnie Mae’s promise to back nonbank servicers lacking the capital to pay investors. Listen in to understand how the Federal Reserve’s activity in the MBS market affects mortgage servicers and learn why the lending system is not broken despite the changes imposed by the health crisis.
Rob C.’s background in mortgage banking + understanding of capital markets
How a mortgage functions as a product manufactured and sold to a buyer
The relationship between a mortgage servicer and the end investor
How government forbearance due to COVID-19 impacts mortgage servicers
Ginnie Mae’s promise to back nonbank servicers lacking capital to pay investors
How current circumstances compare to the 2008 recession
The tens of billions of servicers will owe in margin calls due to the MBS price increase
The consequences of the Federal Reserve’s activity in the MBS market
Why the non-QM and jumbo loan markets are on life support
Why Rob C. is predicting a V-shaped recovery for residential lending
How underwriting guidelines have changed in light of the global shutdown
Why property values are unlikely to take a dive across the board
Connect with Rob Chrisman:
Rob’s Daily Mortgage & News Commentary
Connect with Rob and Greg: